Tres microlecturas para reflexionar durante las vacaciones

No voy a decir lo complicado y delicado que está el mercado porque eso se puede leer en cualquier sitio. Eso sí, de cara al verano sugiero mirar la cartera y reflexionar qué vale la pena mantener y también si vale la pena cubrir esas posiciones (costes y liquidez utilizada) o simplemente dejarlas fluctuar con mercado y si bajan comprar más a mejor precio.

Como elemento de reflexión para el verano os dejo tres cosas que me parecen muy interesantes:

1. Posicionarse en una dirección u otra del mercado cuando todavía la tendencia no está clara es un ejercicio de "aciertismo" y si bien puede ser muy divertido hay que tener en cuenta lo que cuesta ahorrar el dinero como para "jugarlo en bolsa". Recomiendo leer este artículo y reflexionar sobre el "aciertismo" imperante: http://www.cotizalia.com/cache/2009/06/29/opinion_47_educacion_jugar_bolsa.html .

2. Warren Buffet no necesita presentación. Recomiendo escuchar esta charla a unos alumnos del MBA de la Universidad de Florida en 1998, poco después de la quiebra del fondo hedge Long Term Capital Management (LTCM). Desde este video puede accederse a las siguientes partes de la charla: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUQr2c53NhY&feature=channel_page

3. Un extracto de un comentario de Junio de 2009 elaborado por Jean-Marie Eveillard, otro legendario inversor actualmente Senior Adviser en First Eagle Funds.

"If you believe that the post-World War II landscape is still in place, which is possible and maybe even probable, and the recovery will be like the post-World War II recoveries, it will go on for three to five years, corporate profits will increase and then common stocks definitely are the answer.

But if you believe that the financial crisis we're in is different, not in degree but in nature from previouscrises, then you may harbor doubts about the economic recovery. You may be worried about theunintended consequences of the current policies, and if you believe that inflation will come within a year ortwo, then you want to own a combination of common stocks and gold.

I've been reading a great paper written in 1975, about what happened in Germany in the immediateaftermath of World War I and the great inflation at the time of the Weimar Republic. As inflation began toincrease, the stock market kept up with inflation. Inflation accelerated to 10 or 15 percent, common stockswent up 10 to 15 percent, as opposed to cash and bonds which were a disaster.

But as inflation turns towards hyper-inflation in Germany post-World War I, there were some cases ofstarvation for people who were on fixed income pensions, people who held bonds and people who heldcash. Their savings evaporated. Even common stocks were not quite able to keep up with hyper-inflation.I'm not saying that we're going to go into hyper-inflation, but if inflation is the ultimate outcome within ayear or two, then you may want to own a combination of common stocks and gold."